Days have given way to hours in the wait for the biggest fight this decade.
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Terence Crawford will square off in a matchup pitting two of boxing’s top pound-for-pound fighters for Canelo’s undisputed super middleweight title on Saturday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The event will
stream live on Netflix. Canelo and Crawford have both won world titles across four divisions and are two-time undisputed champions.
Canelo (63-2-2, 39 KOs) enters the contest on the heels of a unanimous decision
victory over William Scull on May 3 in Saudi Arabia to become undisputed super middleweight champion for a second time.
Crawford’s last fight came 13 months ago, when he defeated Israil Madrimov to become the WBA junior middleweight champion, adding a world title in a fourth division to his already Hall of Fame-worthy resume.
Rarely, if ever, do two future Hall of Famers who spent much of the peak of their careers at least three weight classes apart meet. That’ll change on Saturday, and even with Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) making the 14-pound jump to face Canelo, there’s no shortage of directions this fight could go when the two highly-skilled operators finally step into the ring against each other.
Here are the keys to victory for Canelo and Crawford in their battle to cement themselves as the best fighter of this era.
Canelo Alvarez
Get the left hook going early
Canelo’s left hook is his best weapon, and his chances of pulling out a victory against Crawford will depend on his ability to find success with that punch.
Doing so as an orthodox fighter against a southpaw is a difficult task, though. Their lead hands and lead foot are often up against each other and can largely cancel each other out as a result.
For all intents and purposes, Crawford is a southpaw at this point in his career as he’s switched much less frequently of late. One of the biggest advantages that come with being a southpaw against an orthodox fighter is the ability to move to their right to get outside of the orthodox fighter’s left hand and keep them turning.
Canelo of Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico, can’t afford to let Crawford do that, or else he'll likely be able to outbox his way to a decision victory. Canelo has to throw his left hook early and often and force Crawford to move toward his right hand.
Even if he isn’t landing the left hook, the threat of it can help limit Crawford’s movement. And if Canelo can find success landing the left hook, it’ll go a long way toward setting up the rest of his offense.
Punch with Crawford
If it’s a fight where both fighters are taking turns punching, it’ll bode well for Crawford.
It’d behoove Canelo to turn it into a firefight and constantly force Crawford to exchange with him. Constantly forcing Crawford to hold him off could also lead to him slowing down in the later rounds, with this being the heaviest weight he has ever fought at.
Canelo also has one of the best chins in boxing. Against a smaller opponent, that should be even more cause for him to be aggressive and time his shots at the same time, when Crawford is punching. Punching with Crawford is also a strategy that has worked for opponents in the past. Egidijus Kavaliauskas, Shawn Porter and Israil Madrimov all had some of their best moments when they were exchanging with Crawford.
Canelo’s edge in size and strength is his most significant advantage heading into the fight against Crawford, and he’d be remiss not to lean on them heavily by punching with him consistently throughout the fight and fighting like the bigger man.
Take advantage of Crawford trying to block punches
Crawford largely depends on his ability to get out of range and counter his opponents as his main form of defense. He also likes to shell up and block punches, and when he does that, Canelo should look to throw and land anywhere on Crawford.
Canelo will likely be able to punch through and around Crawford’s guard. Even if he can’t get through, landing on Crawford’s arms consistently could pay dividends later in the fight.
Canelo was able to pummel Callum Smith’s arms throughout the fight whenever he shelled up, and if Crawford is inclined to try that strategy defensively, Canelo has to make him pay every time.
Terence Crawford
Fight at the end of range, push Canelo back
Canelo’s opponents often find their most success when they’re able to stand their ground or put him on the back foot.
Crawford will need to have success doing both if he’s going to remain undefeated. Whether it’s just barely sliding out of range and countering Canelo, or trying to push forward with straight shots, the Omaha, Nebraska, native can’t afford to try and just stick and move and hope that he gets the benefit of the doubt from the judges.
Crawford needs to use his nearly four-inch reach advantage to his benefit by being the aggressor or staying at the end of range and countering Canelo or picking him off from range. If he can do both, his path to pulling off the upset becomes much more feasible.
Lean on your foot speed
While Canelo is clearly the bigger and stronger guy, Crawford holds a clear edge in speed and footwork as long as the move to super middleweight hasn’t slowed him down too much.
One could argue that the biggest discrepancy in the fight is the footwork and foot-speed between Crawford and Canelo. Canelo has always had slow feet, whereas Crawford’s footwork and ability to fight at angles are among boxing’s best.
Crawford needs to turn Canelo and not let him set his feet to throw. Crawford also needs to do so without running or moving too much, which he rarely does, though, he could move more than usual given the circumstances.
If Crawford can continuously give angles and force Canelo to reset, he’ll be able to outbox him for large portions of the fight, which will give him the inside track to getting his hand raised.
Close rounds strong
Few fights in boxing history can compare to Canelo vs Crawford. One that has commonly been thrown around is Ray Leonard vs Marvelous Marvin Hagler, and a key aspect of how Leonard emerged victorious via split decision in April 1987 should serve as a blueprint for Crawford against Canelo.
Leonard put his foot on the gas in the final 30 seconds in a majority of the rounds, which left a lasting impression on the judges and helped him upend Hagler. Crawford would be wise to do the same, especially if there are rounds where not much has happened or they’re too close to call. If Crawford can land a couple of clean shots or snap Canelo’s head back in the latter stages of a majority of the rounds, that could be what swings the round in his favor.
It’s especially important against a fighter like Canelo, who has gotten the benefit of the doubt from judges before in close fights. Many believed Gennadiy Golovkin did enough to win their first fight, but it was scored a split draw. Many observers also believed that Golovkin deserved the nod in their second fight one year later, but Canelo earned a majority decision victory in the rematch, though, he had a far more compelling case to have his hand raised the second time around.
Even in Canelo’s losses, one judge had it a draw in his one-sided defeat to Floyd Mayweather, and Dmitry Bivol was dominant for much of the fight, only for all three judges to have it 115-113, meaning Canelo was one round away from scoring a draw in a fight many thought Bivol won nine to 10 of the 12 rounds.
If Crawford can be the one who does better work in the latter stages of the majority of the 12 rounds, that lasting impression could be the difference on judges Tim Cheatham, Max De Luca and Steve Weisfeld’s scorecards.