How unpredictable a fight is often tells the story of how intriguing it’ll be when the two fighters step into the ring.
There’s no shortage of directions the clash between
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Terence Crawford can go when they step into the ring on Saturday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on
Netflix. That unpredictability is only fitting for a fight pitting two of the pound-for-pound best fighters of their era.
Canelo (63-2-2, 39 KOs), a four-division titleholder and two-time undisputed champion at super middleweight and will be making the first defense of his second reign with all four belts when he faces Crawford. He’s coming off a less-than-thrilling
unanimous decision victory over William Scull on May 3 in Saudi Arabia to add the IBF title to his collection of belts. Canelo, of Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico, is 11-0 with four knockouts at 168 pounds and defended his undisputed super middleweight title four times in his first run before being stripped of the IBF title in July 2024 for opting to face Edgar Berlanga when Scull was the sanctioning body’s mandatory challenger.
Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs), who has also won world titles in four divisions and is a two-time undisputed champion, will be making a significant leap in weight, going from 154 to 168 pounds. After stopping each of his eight opponents at welterweight en route to becoming an undisputed champion in a second division, the Omaha, Nebraska, native moved up to 154 pounds and won a close unanimous decision over
Israil Madrimov in August 2024 to become the WBA champion, winning a title in a fourth division.
Is
Crawford in over his head in moving up 14 pounds to face
Canelo? Has father time caught up to Canelo? Here are five burning questions heading into this weekend's superfight.
How much will the weight affect Crawford?
This is likely the single most pressing question that will dictate the fight.
A 14-pound jump is significant for any fighter. Not only will it be Crawford’s first fight at super middleweight, but he only fought once at 154 pounds before making the move up for Canelo.
While Crawford, 37, is the taller fighter by half an inch and boasts a nearly four-inch reach advantage, there’s no question that Canelo is the physically bigger and stronger fighter. If you include his five fights at a contracted weight of 155 pounds, Canelo has fought above the junior middleweight limit 22 times in his career, which includes two fights at the light heavyweight limit of 175 pounds.
Crawford, who won his first world title at 135 pounds, appears to have transformed his body and put on plenty of muscle in preparation for Saturday night. While being much physically stronger isn’t a bad thing, it could also open the door for Crawford to tire late if he’s constantly on the move or having to hold Canelo off while fighting a 12-round fight at a weight he isn’t accustomed to.
What weight Crawford steps onto the scale at also bears thinking about. If he’s around 162 to 165 pounds, it’s likely a sign he’s going to lean on his speed and ability to stick and move. One could make a compelling case that it’d behoove Crawford to stay light and lean into the advantages that come with being the naturally smaller fighter. But if he’s at or on the cusp of 168 pounds, it could show Crawford is ready to stand his ground and
try to hold his own against Canelo.
If the weight slows him down significantly, his path to victory will likely be much tougher. But if Crawford is just a bigger version of the fighter who has been one of boxing’s best over the last eight years, his speed advantage and more well-rounded skillset can carry him to the best win of his career.
Was the fight vs William Scull who Canelo is now?
There’s no disputing that much of the blame falls on Scull for how the fight between him and Canelo played out, given how he was almost always on his bike and rarely willing to engage.
Still, that doesn’t mean there weren’t worrisome signs from Canelo’s performance.
Canelo, 35, looked much slower as he struggled to cut off the ring and land anything of significance. He appeared to be a fighter who is in the midst of a steady decline, which factored into his inability to catch Scull. Canelo’s body also looked like he wasn’t in the same kind of shape he’s normally in.
Now, there were many factors that could have had a detrimental effect heading into the fight against Scull that don’t exist this time around. Canelo had to make the trip to Saudi Arabia for the first time in his career and he had to do so earlier than he’s accustomed to compared to when he fights in Las Vegas. He also had to bring his own food, and it’s not a stretch to believe his training and sparring in the final weeks leading into the fight were affected.
Facing Crawford in Las Vegas represents a return to normalcy for the Mexican superstar, who will headline in Sin City for the 18th time of his career. If that leads to the fighter who has been a mainstay on pound-for-pound lists being his very best self, it bodes extremely well for his chances.
Can Crawford handle Canelo’s power?
It’s a safe bet that Canelo is going to land something clean at some point against Crawford. That moment could come early given that Crawford sometimes starts slowly before settling into a groove and he figuring his opponent out.
How Crawford takes that shot will likely dictate the tenor of the fight.
If Canelo can hurt or have a visible effect on Crawford with every clean shot that lands, that’ll spell enormous trouble for the latter. But if Crawford’s chin and body can hold up, it could allow him to stand his ground more and catch Canelo as he tries to close the distance and maybe even try to push him back.
Crawford’s ability to stand in the pocket and pick Canelo off at range or put him on the back foot will likely be his best path to victory. If he can withstand the power of the bigger man, his chances of pulling off the upset become much more feasible.
Does Canelo have one last great performance left in him?
It’s not far-fetched to say Canelo’s last great performance came in November 2021 when he stopped Caleb Plant in the 11th round to become Mexico’s first undisputed champion.
Since then, he has lost to reigning unified light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol before winning his last six fights, though, Canelo was a heavy favorite on each occasion and by the midway point, it felt like many of his opponents had resigned themselves to the fact that they weren’t going to get their hand raised. Most of the fights followed a pattern where Canelo got out to an early lead and, rather than stepping on the gas, he coasted to decision victories. At his peak, Canelo likely would have stopped most, if not all, of the fighters he’s faced in his last six fights.
Canelo was still plenty good enough, but he’s gradually shown signs that the mileage of his pro career that began in 2005 is starting to catch up to him after 67 fights. The version of Canelo who first ran roughshod through the super middleweight division in 11 months from 2020 to 2021 has yet to reappear.
There’s an adage that every great fighter has one last great performance left in him. Canelo has proven his greatness in the past, and he’ll likely need to find that version of himself once more if he’s going to emerge victorious against Crawford and add to his case as the best fighter of this era.
Who has more left in the tank?
Neither fighter exactly lit the world on fire the last time they stepped into the ring. Canelo vs Scull was one of the worst title fights in recent memory, while Crawford had to dig deep in the later rounds to emerge victorious against Madrimov.
While Canelo and Crawford are both still great fighters, they’re at the tail-end or just outside of their primes. However, that doesn’t mean either fighter doesn’t still have that extra gear.
The best of the best have the ability to be at their peak when it matters most. Crawford displayed that when he turned what was viewed as a 50-50 fight into a one-sided drubbing when he dropped Errol Spence Jr. three times en route to a ninth-round stoppage in July 2023 to become the undisputed welterweight champion. Canelo also proved he had another gear when he became the first man to defeat boxing’s boogeyman, Gennadiy Golovkin, in their second fight in September 2018 in a tactical brawl that remains one of boxing’s best fights in the last decade.
In each other, Canelo and Crawford have likely found the perfect dance partners to bring the best out of each other on Saturday. And whoever’s best is better will be the one who has their hand raised at the end of boxing’s biggest night in 2025.