Bob Arum wouldn’t have taken the question seriously if someone asked him a few years ago if Terence Crawford would beat Canelo Alvarez.

Alvarez was generally regarded as the best boxer, pound for pound, in the sport at that time. Crawford was a close second on most lists, but he was a welterweight, three full divisions below where Alvarez competed.

Arum promoted Crawford back then, yet even he didn’t think Crawford could win against an elite-level fighter who displayed power and a granite chin on his way to becoming boxing’s undisputed super middleweight champion. Based on Crawford’s development and what he perceives as Alvarez’s decline, Arum now considers Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) the favorite to win their 12-round, 168-pound championship clash September 13 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

In fact, Arum expects Crawford to produce a convincing victory in a main event Netflix will stream globally to more than 300 million subscribers.

“I think Crawford will win a wide decision,” Arum told The Ring. “It’ll either be a knockout or a wide decision, more likely a wide decision because Canelo is gonna go into a shell. People don’t realize how far back Canelo has gone. It wasn’t just the last fight [with William Scull], but the fights before then.”

Mexico’s Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) has lost only to Dmitry Bivol since Floyd Mayweather outboxed Alvarez, who was 23 at that time, in September 2013 at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Bivol eventually became the undisputed light heavyweight champion, thus Alvarez’s official losses have come against two of the best boxers of the 21st century.

Alvarez has benefited from some questionable judging since Mayweather beat him, but he is a four-weight world champion and remains No. 8 on The Ring’s pound-for-pound list, five spots below the third-ranked Crawford.

Facing an opponent who is as smart and diverse as Crawford will become problematic for Alvarez, based on what Arum has witnessed in recent years.

“Crawford has been fighting better fighters and Crawford has the tools to beat Canelo,” Arum said. “The one big asset that Crawford has, that these fighters don’t know how to deal with, is Crawford is completely ambidextrous. So, they’ll have Canelo sparring with right-handed sparring partners to get ready for the fight. And Crawford might start out fighting right-handed, but he’s gonna end up fighting him as a southpaw and Canelo’s not gonna know how to handle that.”

Alvarez had some difficulty dealing with southpaws early in his career, namely Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara.

The former junior middleweight, middleweight and light heavyweight champion beat Trout and Lara on points. Alvarez later knocked out another left-handed opponent, James Kirkland, in the third round of their May 2015 bout in Houston.

The Guadalajara native then fought 11 right-handed opponents in a row before he stopped British southpaw Billy Joe Saunders after the eighth round in May 2021 in Arlington, Texas. Back then, the 93-year-old Arum admits he would’ve picked Alvarez to beat Crawford, who went on to become the first undisputed welterweight champion of the four-belt era.

“I would’ve said that’s maybe a bridge too far for Crawford,” Arum said. “But this isn’t the Canelo from years ago and this isn’t the Crawford from years ago. Crawford is now a complete fighter.”